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Probabilistic Portfolio Risk Surface

Seeded multivariate Monte Carlo risk surface across multiple horizons and confidence levels, emitting Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall and P&L distribution summaries.

Model keylq.risk.probabilistic-surface
Version1.0.0
Runtimepython-process
Model contract

Inputs are explicit.

{
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
        "weights",
        "covariance"
    ],
    "properties": {
        "weights": {
            "type": "array"
        },
        "expected_returns": {
            "type": "array"
        },
        "covariance": {
            "type": "array"
        },
        "portfolio_value": {
            "type": "number"
        }
    }
}
Output contract

Outputs are explicit.

{
    "type": "object",
    "required": [
        "risk_surface",
        "horizons",
        "confidences",
        "scenarios",
        "seeded_reproducibility"
    ]
}
Default parameters
{
    "scenarios": 5000,
    "horizons": [
        1,
        5,
        20
    ],
    "confidences": [
        0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,
        0.9899999999999999911182158029987476766109466552734375
    ]
}
Example input
{
    "weights": [
        0.59999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,
        0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625
    ],
    "expected_returns": [
        0.0004000000000000000191686944095437183932517655193805694580078125,
        0.00020000000000000000958434720477185919662588275969028472900390625
    ],
    "covariance": [
        [
            0.0004000000000000000191686944095437183932517655193805694580078125,
            0.000120000000000000003040102891649354432956897653639316558837890625
        ],
        [
            0.000120000000000000003040102891649354432956897653639316558837890625,
            0.0002249999999999999938417316602823348148376680910587310791015625
        ]
    ],
    "portfolio_value": 1000000
}
Capabilities
cpuriskprobabilisticmonte-carlomultivariateseeded